TitleOwnerCategoryModified DateSize 
Emergency Preparedness
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE PREPARATION

Hurricane season begins June 1st of each year and ends November 30th. South Florida can be threatened any time during this season.  This information will help you prepare for a hurricane. Please take the time to read this information carefully.

The following are some useful definitions:

• TROPICAL DEPRESSION has winds of less than 39 miles per hour or 34 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM has winds from 39 to 73 miles per hour or 34 to 63 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM “WARNING” once issued, can develop into a hurricane. 
• HURRICANE “WATCH” - a hurricane may threaten the area within 24-36 hours.
• HURRICANE “WARNING” - a hurricane is expected to strike the area within 24 hours or less.
• HURRICANE has winds of greater than 74 miles per hour or 64 knots.
            Category 1 74-95 MPH Minimal
            Category 2 95-110 MPH Moderate
            Category 3 111-130 Major
            Category 4 131-155 Extensive
            Category 5 156 MPH + Catastrophic

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO BE READY IN THE EVENT OF A DISASTER?

Before the Storm
Preparing in advance for hurricane season can determine not only how safely and comfortably you ride out the storm, but also how easily it is to handle the days and weeks after the storm has passed.  Take a look at the information collected below to learn how you can prepare in the days and weeks before a hurricane.

Plan your stay or evacuation:
Stay Home
: However, before you choose this option, make sure you know your elevation. If we experience a storm that may put a significant storm surge in your home, you need to look at the other options. Also, people in manufactured and mobile homes cannot use this option. Mobile homes and manufactured homes are not built to withstand the high winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes.

Stay With a Friend or Relative Who has a Safe Place: If this is your plan, make arrangements in advance. You need to make sure that where you are going is safe. It defeats the purpose of evacuating if you go to an unsafe place.

Relocate Out of the Area: You may wish to travel out of harm’s way. Be sure to bring a road map and make sure that your car is full of fuel. Stay away from major bodies of water. Make arrangements in advance if you can. If you decide to use this option, go early, traffic will be heavy if you leave at the last minute, and you may not make it to your destination.

Emergency Public Shelters: For more information on Emergency Shelters and a list of available Public Shelters please visit a Miami-Dade Public Library or Publix Su

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 5

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:03:11 GMT

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:58:03 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:58:03 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:32:06 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 5

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:54:50 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019


000
WTNT45 KNHC 181454
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Satellite images indicate that Jerry continues to become better
organized, with a large curved band wrapping around the center.
While microwave data does not show an inner core yet, the overall
satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours.
The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which closely matches
almost all of the available Dvorak estimates and a just-arrived
ASCAT-C scatterometer pass.

Further intensification of Jerry is expected during the next day or
two as the cyclone moves over very warm waters within light shear.
While this type of environment could support even more
strengthening than forecast, there is some substantial dry air
around the cyclone, which is forecast to limit the intensification
rates for now.  This forecast leans heavier on the regional
hurricane models HWRF, HMON and COAMPS-TC, which all show a weaker
cyclone than the statistical/dynamical LGEM and SHIPS models.
Most of the guidance shows increasing shear in a couple of days, and
the shear could become somewhat strong by next week.  While little
change in strength is indicated beyond Friday, this usually doesn't
happen in reality, and further changes will be necessary as the
environmental factors become more clear.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12
kt.  The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a
faster forward speed for the next couple of days.  Afterward, a
northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in
the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The
NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory
and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF
model and the corrected-consensus forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it moves
near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to
determine the direct impacts to the islands. Interests there should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the
progress of this system.  Watches could be issued for a portion of
this area this afternoon or evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 14.6N  49.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 15.3N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 16.3N  53.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 17.3N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 18.4N  59.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 20.5N  65.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 23.3N  69.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 26.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 24

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:44:20 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019


000
WTNT44 KNHC 181444
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a
reconnoiter of Humberto this morning found that the intensity of the
major hurricane had increased slightly, but that the inner-core 64-
and 50-kt wind fields had expanded significantly, now extending
outward up to at least 90 n mi and 110 n mi, respectively, in the
southeastern quadrant. During their pass through the southeastern
quadrant, the aircraft measured 700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt,
but peak SFMR winds of only 97 kt. Given that convection is minimal
in that quadrant, the normal downward mixing is likely not
occurring, the intensity has only been increased to 105 kt. The
aircraft also measured a central pressure of 952 mb with a
dropsonde, which is close to the pressure of 954.2 mb with 30-kt
winds that NOAA buoy 41048 measured in the eye around 0930 UTC.

The initial motion estimate remains 065/14 kt. Humberto is beginning
to feel the effects of a deep-layer trough approaching from the
west, and the hurricane should continue to accelerate toward the
east-northeast through tonight, passing just north and northwest
of Bermuda, followed by a turn toward the northeast by early
Thursday afternoon. By 48 hours or so, Humberto is forecast to turn
back toward the east-northeast and maintain that motion through day
5 as a ridge to the east of the cyclone weakens and flattens out.
The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one for
the first 36 hours, and then is a little faster and to the left of
the previous advisory thereafter, closer to the tightly packed
consensus track model guidance.

Humberto may have peaked in intensity based on the cloud pattern
in satellite imagery beginning to take on the appearance of an
extratropical cyclone. Thus, some fluctuations in strength could
occur during the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter, very strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear and cold upwelling beneath the
hurricane should disrupt the inner-core convection and organization,
resulting in steady weakening. By 72 hours, the global models
continue to show Humberto merging with a frontal system, and the
NHC intensity forecast calls for extratropical transition by that
time. The official intensity forecast follows the corrected-
consensus models HCCA and FSSE through the next 12-24 hours, and
then is above that guidance through the remainder of the forecast
period, closer to an average of the global models.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of dangerous winds is expected on Bermuda from
late this afternoon through Thursday morning, with hurricane-force
winds expected overnight tonight. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 32.2N  68.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 33.5N  65.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 36.1N  62.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 38.6N  60.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 40.7N  59.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 43.3N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/1200Z 47.2N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/1200Z 54.0N  20.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:40:50 GMT

...JERRY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Jerry was located near 14.6, -49.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 5

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:40:50 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019


000
WTNT35 KNHC 181440
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...JERRY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 49.2W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.  Watches could be issued this afternoon or
evening.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near
the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane by late
Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday and
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 5

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:40:50 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019


000
WTNT25 KNHC 181440
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  49.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  49.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  48.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.3N  51.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N  53.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N  56.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.4N  59.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N  65.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.3N  69.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N  49.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:40:50 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019


041 
FONT15 KNHC 181440
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   4(22)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   3(18)   X(18)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   3(25)   X(25)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   1(14)   X(14)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   1(34)   X(34)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   1(20)   X(20)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
SABA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   1(18)   X(18)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
ST EUSTATIUS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   1(16)   X(16)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  22(29)   X(29)   X(29)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   1(16)   X(16)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Hurricane Humberto Graphics

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:40:21 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:40:21 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:24:55 GMT

Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:38:51 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019


000
FONT14 KNHC 181438
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
BERMUDA        34 96   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
BERMUDA        50 72   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
BERMUDA        64 12   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:38:21 GMT

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS HUMBERTO STRONGER AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE THREATENS BERMUDA... ...LARGE HURRICANE-FORCE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Humberto was located near 32.2, -68.1 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 24

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:38:21 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019


000
WTNT34 KNHC 181438
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS HUMBERTO
STRONGER AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE THREATENS BERMUDA...
...LARGE HURRICANE-FORCE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 68.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 32.2 North, longitude 68.1 West.  Humberto is now moving
toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).  This general
motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-
northeastward motion through Friday.  On the forecast track, the
core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north
of Bermuda later tonight.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with
higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a
powerful hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to
Bermuda.  A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Humberto is a large hurricane and continues to grow in size.
Hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
195 miles (315 km) based on reports from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda this
evening and continue into early Thursday morning.  Winds are
expected to reach tropical-storm strength later this afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL:  Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today.  Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.  Wave heights exceeding
30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA buoy.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 24

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:38:21 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019


000
WTNT24 KNHC 181438
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N  68.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 300SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N  68.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  68.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.5N  65.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.1N  62.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.6N  60.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.7N  59.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 43.3N  50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 47.2N  33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 54.0N  20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N  68.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 18/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 11:46:52 GMT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 181146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located a few hundred miles west of Bermuda, and on
Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Some development of this system is possible over the weekend while
the system approaches the Windward Islands or across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur
through early next week while the system moves generally westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NHC Status Updates